The Bioeconomy—A New Life Cycle Phase For Swedish Forestry

Evidence from 50 Years of Significant Innovation Output

Philipp Jonas Kreutzer

September 29, 2026

Data of Significant Swedish Innovations With Matched Public Funding Applications

The SWINNO Database

~ 5000 unique innovations

Literature-Based Innovation Output method

from 15 independent trade journals (Sjöö et al., 2014)

Linked to patents Taalbi & Martynovich (2024)

Linked to public funding applications (Fink & Taalbi, forthcoming)

Bioeconomy identified through

  1. Core Sectors e.g. Pulp and Paper
  2. Forest biomass value chain keywords in innovation descriptions

Definition of Bioeconomy

Example Page From a Source Article

The Forest Bioeconomy Is a Competence-Enhancing Life Cycle Phase Which Rejuvenates the Mature Forestry Sector

The Forest Bioeconomy Is a Stable Feature of Swedish Innovation Output

Core Forestry Sectors Switched From Consuming to Producing Innovations

Figure 2: Annual Innovation Output Produced And Used In Core Forestry Sectors. Panel a) shows innovations produced within core sectors and panel b) innovations used in core sectors. Core Sectors include Forestry, Wood Manufacturing, Pulp and Paper, Wooden Furniture Manufacturing.

Comparison to other sectors

Innovation Output is Dominated by Revolving Door Dynamics

Figure 3: Innovation Output Dynamics of Innovating Firms Within Core Forestry Sectors. Core Sectors include Forestry, Wood Manufacturing, Pulp and Paper, Wooden Furniture Manufacturing.

Component Optimization (1970–1989)

ÖSA’s Harvesting Platform

Product Expansion (1990–2021)

Sunpine’s Tall Oil Biorefinery

Bioeconomy Innovation Were Not More Complex, Knowledge or Collaboration Intensive

Figure 4: Predicted Probabilities of Bioeconomy Innovation by Key Predictors. Other covariates at representative values.

\[\text{logit}(P(\text{bioeconomy}_{i}=1)) = \alpha + \mathbf{X}_{i} \boldsymbol{\beta} + (\mathbf{X}_{i} \times \mathbb{1}\{t > 1990\}) \boldsymbol{\gamma} + \mathbf{Z}_{i} \boldsymbol{\delta}\]

Sensitivity to cutoff

Take Aways and Questions

  1. The forest-bioeconomy is a new, competence-enhancing, rejuvinating industry life cycle phase.

  2. After 1990 innovation efforts shifted form internal, modular and optimization focused to integrated systems and new wooden biomass products.

  3. Yet, bioeconomy innovation were not more complex, nor more knowledge, nor collaboration intensive.

  4. Less public funding support for bioeconomy innovation after 1990.

Read the paper and reach out 👋

pjkreutzer.github.io

References

Sjöö, K., Taalbi, J., Kander, A., & Ljungberg, J. (2014). A Database of Swedish Innovations, 1970-2007. Lund Papers in Economic History, General Issues(133), 77.
Taalbi, J., & Martynovich, M. (2024). On the urban bias of patents and the scaling of innovation. https://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.21963.81448

Appendix

Comparison to Steel and Automotive

(a) Annual Innovation Output Produced And Used In Metal Manufacturing Sectors. Panel a) shows innovations produced within core sectors and panel b) innovations used in core sectors. Metal sectors include Manufacture of basic metals and fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment.
(b) Annual Innovation Output Produced And Used In Motor Vehicles, Trailers and Semi-Trailers Manufacturing Sectors. Panel a) shows innovations produced within core sectors and panel b) innovations used in core sectors.
Figure 5

Back to core

Data – Defining the Bioeconomy

Table 1: Key Sectors Used in Query
SNI Code Description
02 Forestry and related services
20 Wood and wood product manufacturing except furniture
21 Pulp, paper and paper product manufacturing
36 Furniture manufacturing; other manufacturing
Table 2: Swedish Keywords used in Query: WHERE description LIKE %keyword% OR ...
Swedish English
virke timber
cellulos cellulose
lignin lignin
spån chip
bark bark
levulinsyra levulinic acid
furfural furfural
svarttjära black tar
svartlut black liquor
växtbas plant-based
ved wood
trä timber
skog forest
biobränsle biofuel
biologiskt biological
nedbrytbar biodegradable
papper paper
karton carton
lyocell lyocell

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Logit

Logit Sample

Table 3: Sample attrition from full SWINNO sample to estimation sample.
Total Bioeconomy Non-bioeconomy
Full SWINNO sample 4972 649 4323
Estimation sample 4183 547 3636
Observations dropped 789 102 687
Observations dropped by variable
Knowledge 631 78 553
Public Funding 122 10 112
Path Dependency 79 10 69
Developmental Complexity 23 6 17
Oil Prices (ln) 5-MA 4 1 3
Wood Prices (ln) 5-MA 4 1 3
Firm 3 0 3
Δ Oil Prices (ln) 1 0 1
Δ Wood Prices (ln) 1 0 1
Counts are not mutually exclusive. Total attrition reflects listwise deletion.

Logit Sensitivity Analysis {sec-logit-sensitivity}

Figure 6: Sensitivity of Interaction Effects to the Structural-Break Year. Estimated log-odds coefficients for each post-period interaction across candidate cutoff years from 1985 to 1995, holding the model specification fixed. Solid lines show point estimates, shaded areas show 95% CIs, and the filled marker indicates the chosen cutoff (1990). Dashed vertical line marks 1990; dotted horizontal line marks zero. Panels: public funding × post, collaborators × post, knowledge diversity × post, high developmental complexity × post, medium developmental complexity × post. Point estimates are stable across cutoffs, indicating that results do not hinge on the choice of 1990.

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